HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING

Equipment changes such as the addition of blinkers is a significant handicapping factor to note. The primary reason trainers add blinkers to a horse is to keep the horse focused looking directly ahead and therefore hopefully racing straight. Blinkers limit the peripheral vision of a horse to assist the horse in avoiding distractions from other horses, and from shadows that may cause it to lose focus on the job at hand. Young horses are particularly prone to get distracted while on the race course due to the noise and sometimes large crowds, so blinkers also can be viewed as safety equipment too. But from a handicapping perspective, when a trainer adds blinkers for the first time, he or she is hoping for an improved performance. Then there are times when a trainer has removed blinkers from a horse, and if the horse did not run well, the trainer will put the blinkers back on. Subscribers will see the Blinkers On (b) symbol when this important equipment change is implemented.

The Trackpro software parses the comment lines in the past performances which are written by professional on track chart callers. The comment lines include many clues about how each horse ran in its last few races, and these comments are often used to help determine why a horse ran the way it did. For example, a horse might be showing a poor finish in its last race, but this might have been due to trouble at the start of the race, possible interference, or something else that prevented the horse from running its best. Sometimes the chart caller will be impressed with the way the horse broke from the gate, or won its last race. When our software sees an important chart comment, it will mark the horse with the Chart Comment (c) symbol.

It is important to note the record of a horse at a particular distance when handicapping. Pay attention to any horse that has won, or has finished in the money at today's distance. Many times a trainer will cut back, or stretch a horse out in distance in order to improve its chances. A distance change is often accompanied by a move up or down in class. Horses that have won by big margins (three lengths or more) can often move up in class, and stretch out in distance. And the opposite is true when a horse has tried a particular distance and did not race well. The Trackpro software pays close attention to distance when it is analyzing the past performances. Horses marked with the Distance (d) symbol in the Trackpro reports should be given close attention.

Horses showing Early Speed (e) are especially dangerous horses at any race track. And very often early speed horses win at double digit odds. One excellent "spot play" method using the handicapped reports is to find horses marked with the Early Speed (e) symbol that also have a top ranked Trackpro Pace (P) rating. If the morning line is over 4-1 on the horse, it could win at a very nice price!

Horses marked with the Form Overlay (f) symbol should be watched carefully on the tote board. These horses are normally rounding into form, and have above average odds. Racing fans often overlook horses that have run well recently, but may have finished poorly last race or two. Very often a form overlay horse will have won a race two or three races back, or closed well passing horses in the stretch, but finished out of the money in its last race. This pattern often results in nice priced winners.

Horses with Hidden Class (h) often light up the tote board at huge odds because racing fans tend to concentrate their handicapping attention on the finish positions of the last few races in the past performances. The Trackpro Value Rating (TPV) algorithm looks closely at horses that may be dropping down the class ladder from substantailly higher levels when looking at the past performances in their entirety, not just the last few races. It also looks for horses that often finish in the money because consistency is a sign of a classy thoroughbred. Earnings per start is another class indicator. When the algorithm spots a horse that could be overlooked on class alone, it will mark the horse with the Trackpro Hidden Class (h) symbol for subscribers. Be sure to give these horses a close look when handicapping. They tend to leave the gate at big odds, and often finish in the money if they do not win!

The Trackpro reports also contain a (%) designation for trainer and jockey combinations that typically generate a positive Return on Investment (ROI) of $2.00 or more for every two dollars wagered. The High T/J ROI (%) designation will appear next to the jockey name with the percent (%) symbol when the ROI is positive for horses listed in the report at above average odds. When subscribers see this symbol, pay particular attention to the tote board odds. In general, when horses are handled by a profitable team that consists of the jockey and trainer, the win payoffs on these horses can sometimes be quite high! This symbol often appears in the reports when a low-win-percentage jockey hooks up with a high-win-percentage trainer, or the reverse.

Trackpro spent considerable time researching pace and speed when he developed the TPV algorithm, and the hard work has paid off. When subscribers see a horse marked with High Speed (!!), this means the horse is capable of winning the race on speed alone versus the field the horse is facing. You will not see this symbol too often in the handicapped reports, because the speed criteria that a horse must meet is very strict, and not many thoroughbreds qualify in general on any one particular race card.

Some horses are bred for turf, and love to run on the turf as opposed to racing on a dirt or all-weather surface. Horses that are showing a High Turf Win Percentage (t) are marked with the (t) symbol. Pay attention to these horses when you see them!

The TPV algorithm takes into consideration horses that are Improving (i) in their last few races. Normally this is indicated by improved running positions, increasing speed figures, higher late pace ratings, and so on. Horses showing improvement often win in their next start, and sometimes are way overlooked on the tote board!

Any horse that is claimed two or more times in the past five races is obviously a horse that is showing positive handicapping factors. Horses that are purchased repeatedly through the claiming process are being bought with hard-earned money for a reason. The connections obviously see potential in the horse, and they hope to make a profit down the road. But the Trackpro algorithm does not just look for any horse that is claimed two or more times in the past five races, it also looks at the class and condition of the horse to be sure the horse is capable of winning races after the claim. Horses that are showing Multiple Claims in their recent past performances, while at the same time demonstrating that they can win races are marked with the Multiple Claims (m) symbol. Subscribers should watch the tote board carefully when they see the Multiple Claims (m) symbol in the reports because more often than not, these selections will win right off the bat, or in their second start off the claim, and pay well into the double digits!! Why? Because the new connections want to get a win as soon as possible after a claim to earn all or part of their investment back, and often the horse is stepped up in class which generally leads to higher odds.

Trackpro has developed a proprietary and unique algorithm that clearly identifies horses that have Notable Class (n) in the race. These horses are marked with the "n" symbol appended to the horse name in the report. Because the handicapping class criteria is very strict as to which horses can qualify for this designation, very few horses will be marked on a typical race card, but those horses that do receive the "n" symbol should be given close attention, and sometimes they will win at double-digit payoffs. But most of the time the payoffs will be between 6/5 and 3-1 because of course the public sees the class advantage too! And very often horses marked with Notable Class (n) also are marked as having Notable Pedigree (=) by the algorithm which often goes hand in hand with class.

Most professional handicappers, and even casual racing fans know that races which consist mostly of first time starters or lightly raced horses, are very difficult to handicap in general. So Trackpro put in the reports the Notable Gate Works (/) symbol to help subscribers find horses that the trainer has taken the time to work from the gate. Reviewing the workouts of first time starters often provides important clues on how the horse can be expected to run for the first time. Notable Gate Works are an excellent handicapping tool that can often point to a win at first asking. But of course, you also need to evaluate the pedigree information provided in the past performances, along with the trainer/jockey statistics too.

Trackpro has developed an extremely accurate algorithm that clearly identifies horses that have Notable Pedigree (=) in the race. These horses are marked with the "=" symbol also appended to the horse name in the report. The pedigree ratings are helpful not only in maiden races where the horses may be first-time starters, but also for horses switching from dirt to turf, or the reverse. Pedigree is also important to note when a horse is stretching out in distance. When horses are marked with the Notable Pedigree (=) symbol, you can be sure these contenders are well-bred thoroughbreds. It is good practice to also take a look at the sire, the dam, the stud fee, and the auction price of the horse in the past performances when it is marked with the Notable Pedigree (=) symbol.

This handicapping tool is very powerful for one simple reason, trainers that are successful are often found in the winner's circle! For example, if a trainer is moving a horse from the dirt to the turf, and the trainer has a win percentage of 18.00% or higher making such moves in the past, then this piece of handicapping information is important to note. The TPV algorithm automatically looks for Notable Trainer Statistics (*) in the past performances, and marks the trainer with the (*) symbol so that subscribers can easily flag these horses for further evaluation in their handicapping.

The weight carried by the jockey is not a handicapping factor noticed by too many racing fans and professional handicappers. Why? Because most of the time all the jockeys ride with similar weights within a few pounds of each other. But sometimes, a race will have an apprentice jockey who has been granted a substantial weight allowance due to the jockey being relatively new to racing, and therefore not having much experience at riding. The weight allowance is usually anywhere from five to ten pounds, which is sort of compensation to even the playing field sort of speak. The Trackpro Value Rating (TPV) will mark any horse in the handicapped report that has a substantial weight allowance with the Notable Weight (W) symbol. Be sure to pay close attention to these horses that are receiving significant "weight off" due to the jockey. This is especially important in route races at eight furlongs or more. But even in sprint races, it pays to note the weight of a horse especially if the odds are over 10-1 on the tote board. Quite often, trainers will take a chance with their horse in a race with an apprentice to try and gain an advantage against the field. Trackpro has seen horses ridden by apprentice jockeys pay well into the double digits, so it pays to note horses carrying substantially less weight in any race.

Horses marked with the Pace Play (^) symbol sometimes win at double-digit prices. Why? Because these horses are in obvious good form, and have sharp speed to lead from the starting gate. But surprisingly, many times the betting public will overlook the Pace Play (^) contenders that are marked in the report, so subscribers can take advantage of this information when they are wagering!

The Trackpro TPV algorithm parses the Brisnet Pedigree Ratings in the following categories: The Fast (Dirt) Pedigree rating measures the quality and suitability of the horse’s breeding for races run on the dirt. The Distance Pedigree rating measures the overall quality and suitability of the horse’s breeding for races run at today’s distance. The Turf Pedigree rating measures the quality and suitability of the horse’s breeding for races run on the turf. Brisnet Pedigree Ratings Calculation: Based on an analysis of hundreds of thousands of starts in North America, each start of all offspring from the sire, dam, and damsire are evaluated and measured for their individual racing aptitudes and preferences. Unlike other pedigree ratings, which merely reflect win percentages or earnings, the BRIS Pedigree Ratings utilize a vast array of performance rating tools (Speed Ratings, Class Ratings, Power Ratings, etc.) to accurately measure the actual improvement or decline each offspring displayed at different distances and surfaces. The net result of this exhaustive compilation is the most accurate, comprehensive, and predictive pedigree ratings available to handicappers. When the Trackpro TPV algorithm finds a horse with an above average morning line that it thinks can win the race based on any of the pedigree ratings set forth above, it will mark the horse as a Pedigree Power Play (--).

Trackpro spent considerable time digging into the handicapping database to find just the right criteria for racing fans looking to make very selective win bets using the daily handicapped reports! In fact, the Profit Play ($) criteria is so strict, that sometimes there will not be any qualifiers on the card. But make no mistake, this brand new Handicapping Tool has the potential to build substantial PROFITS consistently over time! Nothing is guaranteed of course, and there are no sure things in horse racing, but Trackpro thinks the Profit Play ($) selections are going to be very successful going forward.

Horses marked with the Purse (p) symbol have generally been competing against tough fields. When a horse has been running in races with high purses, it is a sign the horse has class. Pay attention to these horses, because they often show consecutive out of the money finishes, and then win at lower purse levels.

Horses that have raced recently are generally in good physical condition, so this factor is marked in the reports with the Recent Race (r) symbol. In addition, many times a shrewd trainer will bring the horse right back to the races within a week or two to take advantage of the form of the horse. It is obvious that horses returning to the race track relatively soon after a race are usually well-meant, and this is definitely a positive sign and an important handicapping factor to note.

The powerful Trackpro Value Rating (TPV) software examines the workouts of every horse in a race. The algorithm notes the speed of the workout, the distance, the description, the surface, and the rank of the workout, and it also calculates the days between workouts. It is very important to know the date when a horse last raced, and it is just as important to know the dates of each workout since that race. Many professional handicappers will demand at least four or more workouts if a horse has been off sixty days or longer. That is no doubt a reasonable requirement because horses need to train regularly in order to maintain sharp condition and form do they not? When the TPV looks at workouts, it pays particular attention to horses that have had a workout very close to a race! This is a significant trainer move that often precedes a win, and many times at double-digit prices. Any horse that shows a workout close to a race is marked with the Recent Workout (+) symbol.

When the Same Jockey (#) returns to ride a horse listed in the selections, this fact is noted by the # symbol. In general, a jockey that is returning to ride will be familiar with the horse which is a positive handicapping factor. It is particularly important to note when a top jockey is returning to ride a horse because top jockeys obviously are hot and win often. The fact that they are returning to ride the same horse means they are confident they might have a good mount in the race. They do not always win obviously, but this handicapping tool is helpful for sure.

Horses that are marked with the Sharp Form (<) symbol sometimes win at long odds because the form is not always obvious. A horse could be running with the pace in the early stages of the race, and then tire and fade to finish out of the money. Just because the horse lost does not mean the horse is not in sharp form. The horse could have been racing in a much higher class, the horse could have been placed at an unsuitable distance, or the horse might have needed a race after a long layoff. When you see the Sharp Form symbol, be sure to pay close attention to the tote board odds and check the past performances. In the past, some of these contenders have won at odds deep into the double digits! Not all of the time of course, but you do not need to catch many winners at big odds to sustain a profit over a period of time.

Most professional handicappers know full well that when a trainer ships a horse to a new track, they are doing so for a very good reason. They think their horse has a legitimate shot to win! After all, it costs time and money to transport horses does it not? And not only that, there are plenty of other expenses involved, so it pays to look closely at horses in the past performances that previously raced at another track in their last race. One of the powerful Handicapping Tools that Trackpro developed for subscribers is the Sharp Shipper (x) symbol. When the TPV algorithm sees a horse that shipped from another track in its last race, and it thinks it can win, the horse is marked as a Sharp Shipper (x) in the report!

It goes without saying that horses showing speed in their workouts are training well, and can be expected to run on or near the pace in their next start. Horses showing speed in multiple workouts at longer distances are particularly dangerous contenders in any race. Look for the Speed in Workouts (s) symbol on first time starters too!

The Trackpro Overlay (+) is derived by comparing the morning line on each Trackpro selection to the proprietary internal Trackpro Odds Line (TOL). If the morning line is above the TOL, then the algorithm will mark the horse as a Trackpro Overlay (+), providing some additional internal criteria are also met. This tool can be very useful for professional racing fans looking to find overlays that figure to win!

The Well Placed Contender (>>) tool ensures horses are placed by the trainer at a favorable class level, and at a distance where the horse has won or can win. Class and distance are two major components that many winning horses have in common.